Impact of Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda and the future of Global Healthcare

Breaking news

RFK Jr. has been confirmed as the new Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), signalling profound changes for US healthcare, with ripple effects likely to be felt globally – conspiracy no more! The US remains the largest spender on healthcare, accounting for around 50% (£800 billion) of global prescription drug expenditure and 40% (£600 billion) of global medical device spending - totalling £1.4 trillion annually across both sectors. Overall, US healthcare spending is approaching £3.8 trillion.

While the US has long been seen as the "holy grail" for profits, focusing solely on access to its market may no longer be enough. Non-US companies, particularly those in Europe, will now need to consider positioning themselves to leverage the exceptional potential within their own healthcare systems - systems built on outcomes, clinical excellence, and a wealth of intellectual property. These systems often outperform the US on key healthcare metrics, including equitable access, outcomes, and the quality of care.

Europe’s position: A hub of medical innovation with risks and opportunities

As a hub for medical innovation and intellectual property, Europe could face both challenges and opportunities. If punitive tariffs are imposed, European firms may struggle to access the US market. However, these tariffs could also serve as a bargaining tool, positioning Europe to leverage its expertise and intellectual property in negotiations with the US, depending on how aggressively trade policies are enforced.

What will RFK Jr. do, and what could it represent?

A significant paradigm shift is expected to reshape the medical device, pharmaceutical, and life sciences markets. Here’s a breakdown of what that might look like:

A) Pharmaceutical and medical device profit model shifts

Big pharma lobby groups: These groups will likely enter distress mode as regulations tighten.
Stricter advertising regulations: Direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical marketing could be limited.

B) The erosion of pharma immunity

Vaccine transparency: We can expect greater transparency regarding vaccines.
Scrutiny on safety measures: Increased oversight will restrict the approval of low-efficacy drugs.

C) Demand for transparent clinical trials

Open data analysis: Independent bodies will scrutinise trials, free from pharmaceutical funding influence.
Meta-analysis: A growing focus on analysing trial safety and ingredients with unnecessary biological effects.

D) Shift toward clinical outcome-based medical devices

Non-invasive interventions: A greater emphasis on non-invasive procedures.
Prioritising non-invasive measures: A focus on diet and other non-invasive approaches before medical procedures.

Corporate owners, privately managed businesses, and financial investors must rethink their strategies to adapt to this evolving healthcare landscape. If your strategy has been shaped by 2023/2024 policies, it’s time to reassess your approach.

Key trends we expect to accelerate and become investable

AI-Driven nurse concierge services: Expansion of these services to US populations, showcasing the scale and ambition of this shift.
Healthier food and beverages: Increasing demand for higher-quality products with fewer processed and harmful ingredients. For instance, Red Dye No. 3 is set to be banned by the FDA by 2027, which could accelerate under RFK Jr.'s leadership.
Surge in natural remedies: Increased interest in medicinal cannabis, vitamins, minerals, and supplements, reflecting the shift toward alternative healthcare.
Repurposing generics: Exploring new indications or uses for generics, leveraging years of safety data.
Non-invasive treatment options: Growing demand for safer, less intrusive medical solutions.
Better clinical services: A push for services with demonstrably better outcomes, focusing on patient-centric care and data-driven models.
AI in clinical R&D: Leveraging AI for faster molecule development and drug discovery.
Early detection of adverse events: Smarter data analysis, using predictive algorithms and real-time monitoring to detect risks early.

A legacy of transparency: Operation Warp Speed and the MAHA agenda

According to RFK Jr., during his hearings, Operation Warp Speed, launched during the Trump administration in response to COVID, was not solely focused on vaccines but was also a comprehensive review of all available therapies. Its primary goal was to eliminate biases, promote scientific transparency, and ensure that all perspectives were heard. RFK Jr. has echoed this sentiment, emphasising that these principles of openness and scientific integrity will form the foundation of the MAHA Agenda. Under this agenda, open discourse and inclusive dialogue will be prioritised - nothing will be off the table.

A call for courageous change

You might argue that such profound change is unrealistic within a single four-year term. However, as demonstrated by the actions of the Trump administration since 20th January 2025, true change requires courage and conviction - talk is cheap. This shift in healthcare politics is happening now, and the focus is moving towards results and accountability, regardless of political affiliation. Non-US companies, particularly those in Europe, have a significant opportunity to capitalise on this evolving landscape.

The US MAGA movement has removed DEI policies, started building the border wall, with ICE beginning to deport, and there is potential for tariff wars. It seems MAGA is delivering on their mandate, which has started in earnest. The MAHA agenda will likely be another promise that kicks off immediately if January 2025 is anything to go by.

What is the downside risk?

The opposition would state that pharmaceutical and medical device companies will halt investments, share price instability in pharma and life sciences, and potentially worsening access to healthcare. You can see arguments on both sides.

However, one fact remains: the US is spending £3.8 trillion on healthcare and still has the poorest mortality rate, ranked 32nd¹ globally in healthcare, compared to the UK’s 18th ranking. Using a football analogy, the US is not in the Premier League - it’s more like a team full of overpaid players, living off past glories and underperforming, which sounds similar to some hot destinations we can all name!

The next 12 months will be pivotal for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and the strategic positioning of healthcare businesses worldwide.

¹Source: Global Relocate, Health Index Rankings - https://global-relocate.com/rankings/health-index